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- USDOLLAR Index MASSIVE Signal Makes Me Bearish For SPX, BTC
USDOLLAR Index MASSIVE Signal Makes Me Bearish For SPX, BTC
Inviting crypto authors to join the digitalcurrencytraders publication on Medium
Hello, fellas! Thanks for tuning into this impromptu video on the price of Bitcoin, digital currencies, and Bitcoin dominance.
We're going to take a look at the dollar index versus DXY. I'm going to reveal something about cryptocurrency price patterns in the alt season co-pilot, and I've got a special announcement too. So, I'm going to start off with the special announcement and get that right out of the way before we get into the details here about Bitcoin dominance making such a big drop here just recently. But before I get into that, let's go into the announcement.
Special Announcement
I'm inviting authors to come and join us over on the new digitalcurrencytraders publication on Medium.
If you are actively trading, if you're actually doing something with cryptocurrency and you're blogging, come and check it out. This might be a place where you would like to get your publications noticed by more people. We're going to grow that, and it's going to be really good stuff, not ChatGPT crap.
So now, here, Bitcoin dominance has dropped big time.
Bitcoin Dominance with BTC price in blue. (image by author)
When Bitcoin dominance is dropping and Bitcoin prices stay flat, this means that more money has dropped into altcoins than has dropped into Bitcoin during this specific period of time.
When this pumped, a bunch of money went into the altcoins. Coincidentally, the dollar index was being squeezed at the very moment that all of that money dumped into crypto.
Of course, I don't know, there's no way for me to know anything about where this is going or what it's going to mean for prices, but I do want to mark it out and document it so that I can come back and take a look at this later and see what it means.
Bitcoin and Altcoin Markets Analysis
As we're coming back into Bitcoin prices now, you may know that I've been bearish and expecting that the dollar index is going to rise and that everything is going to get crushed. The stock market, Bitcoin, gold, and silver, everything, as the dollar index goes up. I was wrong, and I was wrong again during these two specific times where I was really looking for the bearish break there. And you know, that's the way it goes.
Now, I'm still bearish, and I'm expecting the big bearish break, and I'm looking to see where I might be wrong on this because the S&P 500 has been really taking off and making some moves where I was expecting this to be topping all the way along here. Every time we hit support and resistance, I was expecting it to be the top, and it just keeps going where Bitcoin hasn't yet.
So, Bitcoin could be ready to take off, and that movement of the money that shows Bitcoin dominance dropping could be the sign of fresh money moving into altcoins right there as the dollar index was being squeezed. I don't know the future, but I wanted to document this stuff.
Question About DXY and Dollar Index
Now, I have a genuine question for you guys.
This is the dollar index chart, we can see a double bottom here, and if I check out the RSI, you can see there's a hidden divergence here. Great! But anyway, the question is, what's the difference between DXY and the dollar index?
Because DXY has broken that support level where the dollar index hasn't yet.
So then I'm looking for either the dollar index is going to go and break this support and go down with DXY, or DXY is going to be catching itself here, and it's going to be coming back up.
Analysis on Potential Market Scenarios
So, I've got another indicator, and I did an article over on Medium that shows a really important signal in DXY that occurred at the very same time that COVID happened.
Same Color Signal As COVID Reversal
The last time this signal turned up was right in here when the Dollar came down to these super extreme levels, that's the last time that that signal turned up. Now we have that signal again here. So, while I'm expecting the dollar index to go up and crush everything, I don't know.
US Dollar Index has not flashed THIS signal since COVID reversal.
medium.com/digitalcurrenc…
#bitcoin#usdollar#DOLLARSQUEEZE
— AltSeason CoPilot Doug (@introtocryptos)
1:25 PM • Jul 19, 2023
This could be the time where the dollar index is going to be continuing down, and it's just the beginning of the fold of the US dollar.
So, if the US dollar folds and goes down, where is the money going to come from to pump everything else?
I don't get that. I think no matter if it's going up or going down, everything's wrecked, but I don't know.
So, I wanted to do this video because the alt season is creeping up on us. We can see that we now have 126 coins in alert status and 60 coins in hold status. I don't know if this wave, particularly, is going to be different than the first three waves that we had here in 2023.
Looking into Altcoins
The Potential Impact on Cryptocurrency
The altcoin season is creeping up on us. We can see that we now have 126 coins in alert status and 60 coins in hold status. I can't say whether this wave will differ from the first three waves we had in 2023.
Evaluating Crypto Trends
In January 2023, we saw some movement. We had some coins go into hold status, and there were some decent gains. But, we also had some fakeouts in April and May, which resulted in some losses for me. Now we have a multitude of coins in alert status, and a handful in hold status. It's important for us to examine each coin to understand what the chart pattern is telling us.
For members of the All-Season Co-pilot Control Panel, this data is provided daily.
This helps to track the progression of the coins we're holding or not, throughout the days. For example, here are the coins that have recently gone into partial exit and full exit status.
Knowing when to get out.
Not everything is trending at the same time. No matter how bullish our opinion is, we have to focus on risk control first.
Goodness knows I still need repeat lessons on this concept!
#altseasoncopilot #altseason#altcoins
— AltSeason CoPilot Doug (@introtocryptos)
4:26 PM • Jul 19, 2023
As these coins start pulling back and we see more of the 60 coins in hold status beginning to exit, we need to pay attention.
Adapting to Crypto Market Changes
This is the time to really watch because we don't know if this wave is about to take off or not. At the same time, we want to have diversified into each of those 60 coins with just a bit of money. We don't know what kind of crazy moves might be on the horizon for cryptocurrency.
If Bitcoin dominance drops significantly from here, that's a sign that altcoins are really profiting. Altcoins have taken quite a hit lately as Bitcoin prices rose. This is a measure of altcoins staying flat and getting crushed as Bitcoin moved.
Now, the worst-case scenario for altcoins and for crypto in general is if Bitcoin dominance continues rising as Bitcoin prices drop. So, it's critical to be on guard for all of our trades at this moment. Yet, if dominance is dropping as Bitcoin prices are starting to surge, this is a double win for those holding altcoins.
Wrapping Up
I could go on about this all day… and I do… over on our crypto discord. I love to journal my ideas because it's crucial to review my own bias and to play small into all those coins that I may not believe in. But if they have the patterns, I have to go with them. As I've demonstrated in this video, we need to be vigilant in our approach to the cryptocurrency market, given the possible shift in the dollar index and its potential impact on the market.
As always, thanks for tuning in to this video. I'd like to extend an invitation to potential journalists out there who may want to contribute their insights and knowledge to the cryptocurrency community.
Trade safe and keep those losses small.
Doug