Bitcoin Breaks Lower, Lets Check for REVERSAL POTENTIAL!

July 24 Bitcoin Price Drops Below Key Supports at $30000

Red Day in Bitcoin, How Bad Will It Get? (image by author)

Good morning, fellas! It's about 11 o'clock in the morning, Central Time, July the 24th, 2023.

Bitcoin prices just made a break lower but the S&P 500 is pumping right now on the short timeframe, the 15-minute timeframe.

So, as Bitcoin prices have come down here now, I want to go through the indicators to see if they are passing some of our key levels that have been identifying the past couple of days or if this is going to be a Bull in Japan mean reversion right here and it could reverse and start to blast higher. I'm going to identify those levels as well.

Updates on Digital Currency Traders Project

Now, before I do, I want to talk about what we're doing with the Digital Currency Traders project recently. I'm doing a little bit more videos here because I'm doing them live, and then I process them afterwards. I think it's taking less time to do, and I get more value out of it. So I'll see how this works out.

Call for Authors

What I want to do now is learn more about what other people are doing in crypto.

I'm inviting authors to write for DigitalCurrencyTraders publication on Medium.com

I'm setting up an environment where I can really promote the authors who are doing authentic, real crypto research and actually sharing what they're doing in a format that you and I can learn from these people and support their work.

So, what I want to do to support their work is, when they publish an article following our protocols, then we'll promote your article on our DigitalCurrencyTraders Medium publication and we'll tweet out your articles on our X profile as well.

Extending Community Reach

So, after the video is shared, and we put your YouTube stuff out there in our community and the channels, we'll also share your article on our small and growing business page on Linkedin. You can become listed as one of the people who is an employee, volunteer, or a freelance writer for credibility on your LinkedIn profile. We'll publish your articles here, and then we'll share them into relevant cryptocurrency groups inside of LinkedIn.

Collaborative Growth and Revenue Streams

Another thing we recently started doing is to take the Digital Currency Traders publication and reformat it, send it out on Flipboard.com, where it's another community that is growing and active, where people can share the details out there. If you are publishing on Beehiiv, we will also promote your newsletter, and if you are publishing on Substack, we can also co-promote each other's newsletters and help each other grow our profiles across all of these different platforms that do turn into revenue streams that are aside from cryptocurrency trading itself.

Trading Strategy and System Status

All right, so one of the things that I do is I trade crypto, and I started my YouTube channel so that I would get better at crypto, not so that I would grow my YouTube channel. (It's kind of a mistake at the beginning.)

Utilizing ChatGPT for Content Creation

So we're getting real content out there, not the ChatGPT crap. Now, I'm not all against ChatGPT. There's a way to use it. I want to support the YouTube creators who have a small channel that is growing. They've been doing this for a long time, and they know what they're doing. I want to help them take their transcripts, use ChatGPT to pull that transcript out, make it into something useful, and then share it on our community.

That's what I'm doing with this video when I'm done.

July 24 Bitcoin Price Dips!!

Lets jump into bitcoin price action today, our trading system has put us into partial hold status for Bitcoin, and it looks to me like it's going to be crossing the EMA's pretty quickly here as it's coming down, and that would kick us out into a full exit for our trading system.

Market Trends and Future Predictions

At the same time, we do have this parallel channel. It's pretty clear and clean. I don't know where it might bounce in the middle of that, how much sideways we might go now before we hit that parallel Channel. But I want to pay attention to prices as we come down to those parallel channels now. So, our indicator set for me, when I first see this, I'm watching for any kind of bullish spring out of this because we've had a few of them. So, no matter where it's turning up now, I want to be ready for any kind of one-two-three reversal in the price as it's coming down.

Personal Trading Decisions

So right now, I am short from up in here on average, and my stop is still above those levels, and I have not done anything with it. I'm just watching. I'll show you what I have to do for my price if I'm going to do a signal, if I'm going to get a trade to add on to this. It must do this.

If it doesn't do this price action, then I can't add on to my short signal the way I want to. So nothing I can do right now but go through and map everything out.

Re-evaluation and Potential Bullish Divergence

Having to reevaluate, I might have to start going small long on it and see what happens with that on this price break. Now, we do have kind of a bullish divergence that could shape up as we go into the smaller time frames. I would look for the MACD to start crossing over and be going back into positive territory. On this really short time frame, we can see the bullish divergence. The aim is to map it out so that I can tell afterwards what was the signal that confirmed or denied as we go.

Ichimoku Cloud and the Dollar Index

Now zooming back out, I'm looking at the Ichimoku Cloud and the three-day chart. A lot of Bitcoin bulls are like drooling at this chart because if Bitcoin bounces off the three-day Bollinger Band Ichimoku Cloud like this, it could be really bullish.

To gain perspective on this, I wanted to go into the dollar Index. The dollar Index came back and then reversed back in the COVID day. Right now, it's doing the potential same reversal as it came underneath that 200 period exponential moving average and it's bouncing. Is it going to bounce up above that? If it does, Bitcoin's going to crash.

Bitcoin on the Bollinger Bands

Here's another cool one, Bitcoin on the Bollinger Bands. I was watching for the price to break down below the 200 period exponential moving average, and indeed it's broken down below and gone outside that third standard deviation. It's working its way back inside the second standard deviation, and if it does that while making a one-two-three formation on the short time frame, it's not doing it. I need a one-two-three. I could cheat a little bit and after the fact say that this is the bottom if it goes up above, but right now it's not enough. It still seems like it's sliding down.

Waiting for the Entry Signal

The four-hour time frame gave us a really clean sell signal right there outside and hammered back in, and then it completed the one-two-three top formation on a small time frame.

We can see that one-two-three on the small time frame when I go to this chart.

So, I grabbed this one-two-three up in here, and now I'm just waiting for prices to come up and to give me my entry signal, my add-on signal. Give me the one-two-three up underneath again, or break and do another one for me so that it gives me enough space that my stop loss can still not be hit. I can add on to it without killing my stop loss.

When I add on to it at this close to my initial entry, I bring my stop loss down so close that any kind of market noise within shark feeding and whale feeding zone, it'll take me out of my good entry.

Adjusting Stop Loss and Trading Strategy

It's crucial to have enough space so that my stop loss can still not be hit. When I add on to it at this close to my initial entry, I bring my stop loss down so close that any kind of market noise within shark feeding and whale feeding zones can potentially take me out of my good entry. So, I can't add on to this yet until there's more space between there.

I don't want my stop loss to do that to me because oh, it's done that so many times.

So, I have to wait on this, I still can't add on to that trade even though I'm right. It's not close enough for me to add on to that.

Analyzing the Bollinger Bands

Next, the Bollinger Bands pinch down and give us the exit. We're on the pinch of the 12-hour time frame and it hasn't confirmed and widened yet for me to really believe that we're doing it. On the daily time frame, we're only touching it, it hasn't really started to widen and continue down. We have days of this to go before it really shows itself to me.

The three-day time frame would be important for us to be crossing back under that 20 period exponential moving average because it would match the weekly that we're crossing under.

The weekly crossing under while we're doing this pinch could be a really strong continuation that would hit those extreme lows down to the bottom of the weekly bands.

The Necessity of Switching Strategies

This situation could be scary and yet, the pinch of the weekly bands makes me have to let go of my short trade right away if it's starting to go up from here. I would have to flip and get a little bit long because at least I'll get something underneath my feet so that I can be adding on to it should it pump, pull back and give me that place to get my foot on the ground there.

The Custom Indicator for the Bollinger Bands

To finish it up, this is my custom indicator for the Bollinger Bands and when it goes bright green, I'm kind of freaked out about it.

This is why I'm not wanting to add on to my trade right here.

When it goes bright green, I don't want to be jumping and adding on to a short right there because the bright greens have been places where we've had the big reversals.

Importance of Green Signals and Continuing Observations

The importance of these green signals, especially when we bring it out to the longer time frames, can't be overstated. They're not as important on the smaller time frames. We have to watch how these bright greens play and develop because as we get into a serious trend, it can stay red all the way along. If we start going green, that suggests a potential pump, and we need to observe this carefully.

Bitcoin Breaks Below 30k Again. (images by author)

Final Thoughts and Invitation to Discord Community

Thanks for tuning in, and I appreciate you guys being here. If you are a crypto creator, come and join us over on our Discord. I have a coffee room just for the authors and a general area where you'll get special status up top in our Discord community. You'll also get your own RSS feed pulled into our Discord community so that all of the content that you're doing is right up front. Anyway, it's great to have you along, and remember:

Trade safe and keep those losses small.